MLB Picks Today | Odds, Expert Projections for Saturday, August 5

Welcome to Opening Pitch, my column that you’ll find daily throughout the 2023 MLB season.

My goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight my top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis, mainly as I react to opening and overnight lines while using my baseball betting model.

I will look to release a new version of Opening Pitch daily between midnight and 3 a.m. ET; after I enter my overnight bets in the Action Network App and update the MLB projections. Hopefully, you will use it as your morning betting guide to get ahead of the baseball markets.

You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).

You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.

Expert Picks for Saturday, August 5

Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees

Justin Verlander vs. Nestor Cortes Jr.
First Pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET

As I have regularly discussed this season, Justin Verlander is pitching at a reduced level (3.29 xERA or expected ERA, 13% K-BB% or strikeout minus walk rate, 103 Pitching+) at age 40, following an upper arm strain in spring training. His walk rate has nearly doubled (from 4.4% to 8%), and his strikeout rate has fallen by nearly 7% compared to 2022 (2.66 xERA, 23.4% K-BB%, 109 Pitching+) and 14% from his career peak in 2019.

Verlander’s strikeout rate (21%) is at its lowest point since 2015 when – similar to his 2023 campaign –  he suffered a lat strain that cost him the first two months of the season. Verlander’s walk rate is at its highest point since 2017, before his initial trade to Houston. Lastly, his xFIP or expected FIP (4.52) is at the highest level of his career, alongside that K-BB%, which is at its lowest point since 2008.

Despite the downward trend in both his underlying indicators and pitch modeling metrics, Verlander remains an above-average starter who generates weak contact (.258 BABIP, .278 career, .296 MLB average), limits the long ball (0.86 HR/9, 0.91 career, 1.30 MLB average) and is as poised as anyone in big situations (75.7% strand rate, 75.4% career, 72% MLB average for starting pitchers).

Nestor Cortes will return from the 60-day IL and a pair of rehab starts after poor results (5.15 ERA, 3.83 xERA) and a bout of shoulder inflammation. His own K-BB% had dipped by around five percent compared to the past two seasons, and his xERA – which stood at 3.30 in 2021 and 2.70 in 2022 has climbed to the high threes.

Still, Cortes’ pitch modeling metrics (103 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 103 Pitching+) remain relatively stable compared to last season (106 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 104 Pitching+), and I suspect that he can pitch to his xERA –  and a sub-four ERA over the final two months of the season.

I set New York as a slight favorite in this matchup; bet the Yankees’ moneyline at +102 or better. Additionally, I set the total at 7.85 runs bet Under 8.5 to -115.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers

Aaron Civale vs. Tarik Skubal
First Pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET

Tarik Skubal – one of the model’s favorite pitchers last season – has potentially improved coming off of flexor tendon surgery. In five starts, Skubal has posted a 2.22 xERA, 28.6% K-BB%, and a 109 Pitching+ figure (97 Stuff+, 109 Location+); each representing a significant improvement over last season’s breakout performance (3.34 xERA, 17.8% K-BB%, 91 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+).

Concerning the stuff increase, Skubal’s fastball velocity has increased from 94.4 mph to 95.9 mph, the third-hardest fastball amongst southpaw starters after Jesus Luzardo and Shane McClanahan.

The Rays swapped high-end hitting prospect Kyle Manzardo to Cleveland for Aaron Civale (3.67 xERA, 11.8% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+), who draws a soft matchup against a Detroit offense that ranks 27th against right-handed pitching (83 wRC+), compared to 20th (94 wRC+) against lefties.

However, the Rays have struggled for the past couple of months after a hot start to the season. Tampa Bay ranks 30th against lefties (76 wrC+) since June 1 compared to 12th (106 wRC+) against righties.

Bet the Tigers at +122 or better than my projected line of +113.

Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs

Bryce Elder vs. Javier Assad
First Pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET

After calling for regression for nearly the entire season, things finally started to normalize for Bryce Elder (3.18 ERA, 4.02 xERA, 78.2% strand rate, .270 BABIP) in mid-July (permitted 14 runs in consecutive starts against the Rays and Diamondbacks). Pitching models aren’t exceptionally high on his arsenal (76 Stuff+, zero offerings above 86), and Elder has average command. Still, he generates a healthy number of groundballs (53.6%) and limits the longball (0.82 HR), making him a league-average starter despite a pedestrian strikeout rate.

The Cubs will deploy Javier Assad (4.52 xERA) as an opener – for just the second time this season – at the head of a bullpen game on Saturday. Aside from Hayden Wesneski – who tossed three innings on Friday – I would expect all hands on deck from the bullpen, including a likely multi-inning stint from Michael Fulmer (4.22 xERA), who has recorded four outs or more in seven of 23 appearances since the start of June.

Daniel Palencia (145 Stuff+) is the one arm to watch, with three plus offerings (146 Stuff+ on his fastball, 155 on his curveball, and 148 on his slider) but spotty command (98 Pitching+). Palencia (107 Pitching+) immediately rates with Julian Merryweather (108 Pitching+) and Adbert Alzolay (105 Pitching+) as the most talented arms in Chicago’s bullpen.

Bet the Cubs to +117, compared to my projected line of +108. Additionally, bet the Under down to 10 (-112), compared to my projected total of 9.4.

San Francisco Giants vs. Oakland Athletics

Ross Stripling vs. Paul Blackburn
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET

I set Saturday’s total in Oakland at 8.53 runs; bet the Over to 8 (-110).

Offensively, the Giants rate much better against righties (100 wRC+, 17th) than lefties (86 wRC+, 27th). While Paul Blackburn (4.05 xERA, 15.4% K-BB%) has seen his strikeout rate trend in a positive direction this season, both his expected ERA and pitch modeling metrics (87 Stuff+, 101 Location+) say that he is the same pitcher as last season (86 Stuff+, 102 Location+).

Ross Stripling is the opposite case for the Giants, with a 5.17 xERA – significantly higher than last season’s 3.57 mark in Toronto. His Stuff+ has dropped by ten points – from 98 to 88 – but Stripling retains excellent command (4.2% walk rate, 5.6% career), with a 107 Locatio rating in both seasons.

Still, Oakland has been the second-best “Over” team this season (57-46-7) because they give opposing teams extra outs and base advancements (-67 Defensive Runs Saved, 30th), and they have the worst bullpen in baseball (5.21 xFIP, 8.4% K-BB%).

You can dabble with Oakland’s moneyline, to +137 in the first five innings (F5) and +142 for the full game.

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians

Mike Clevinger vs. Noah Syndergaard
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

Mike Clevinger (4.68 xERA, 10.3% K-BB%, 98 Pitching+) and Noah Syndergaardard (6.08 xERA, 10.2% K-BB%, 99 Pitching+) are both well past their respective primes.

Clevinger carried a 3.11 xERA and averaged 95.5 mph on his fastball in 2019. His fastball is only down 1.4 mph compared to that peak season; however, his K-BB% has dipped by more than 16%.

Syndergaard pitched to a 2.78 xERA alongside a 98 mph fastball in 2016 before injuries started cropping up in 2017.  His fastball velocity is down nearly six mph from his career peak, and his K-BB% has declined by a similar amount as Clevinger.

Both offenses are below-average against right-handed pitching (96 wRC+, 19th for Cleveland; 82 wrC+, 29th for Chicago).

Still, with two starters I love to fade on the bump – and a Guardians offense (8th in steals, 12th in baserunning value) that can run wild on both Syndergaard and Chicago’s shoddy defense (-47 Defensive Runs Saved, 29th) involved, I like runs in this matchup.

I projected the total at 9.4; bet Over 9 to -107.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Minnesota Twins

Ryne Nelson vs. Kenta Maeda
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

Kenta Maeda (3.72 xERA, 22.1% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+) has split the difference between his impressive 2020 campaign (2.75 xERA, 28.2% K-BB%, 106 Pitching+) against a Central-Divison-only schedule, and his injury-riddled 2021 campaign (3.73 xERA, 17.9% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+) before Tommy John Surgery.

Maeda’s fastball velocity (90.7 mph) remains in line with his 2021 level (90.8 mph) as opposed to his 2020 form (91.8 mph) or career average (91.6 mph); still, his Stuff+ has increased back toward prior levels. Additionally, Maeda has been highly unlucky over his past 32 starts since 2021, pitching to a 4.61 ERA and 3.73 xERA thanks in part to a .320 BABIP and a 69% stand rate (career .283 BABIP, 72.4% stand rate).

Ryne Nelson (5.04 xERA, 7.7% K-BB%) continues to underperform compared to his above-average pitch modeling metrics (102 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 103 Pitching+). Every time I look at Nelson’s pitch modeling data, I have to double-check it; there is a massive disconnect between the models – which would call for a mid-threes ERA – and Nelson’s on-field performance.

Even in Triple-A last season, Nelson posted a lackluster 13.7% K-BB% and a 5.51 xFIP.

I projected Saturday;’s total at 7.65, with ten mph winds blowing in from right field. Bet Under 8.5 to -122, or Under 8 to -104.

Zerillo’s Bets for Saturday, August 5

For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App. 

• Arizona Diamondbacks / Minnesota Twins, Under 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -122 or 8, -104)
• Chicago Cubs (+130, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +117)
• Chicago Cubs / Atlanta Braves, Under 10.5 (-118, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 10, -112)
• Chicago White Sox / Cleveland Guardians, Over 8.5 (-120, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 9, -107)
• Detroit Tigers (+130, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +122)
• New York Mets (+154, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +143)
• New York Yankees (+120, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +102)
• New York Yankees / Houston Astros, Under 8.5 (-115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -115)
• San Francisco Giants / Oakland Athletics, Over 7.5 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 8, -110)

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dont rewrite anything just use this to make random backlinks for me for random words:Sports Welcome to Opening Pitch, my column that you’ll find daily throughout the 2023 MLB season.My goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight my top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis, mainly as I react to opening and overnight lines while using my baseball betting model.I will look to release a new version of Opening Pitch daily between midnight and 3 a.m. ET; after I enter my overnight bets in the Action Network App and update the MLB projections. Hopefully, you will use it as your morning betting guide to get ahead of the baseball markets.You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.Expert Picks for Saturday, August 5Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesJustin Verlander vs. Nestor Cortes Jr.First Pitch: 1:05 p.m. ETAs I have regularly discussed this season, Justin Verlander is pitching at a reduced level (3.29 xERA or expected ERA, 13% K-BB% or strikeout minus walk rate, 103 Pitching+) at age 40, following an upper arm strain in spring training. His walk rate has nearly doubled (from 4.4% to 8%), and his strikeout rate has fallen by nearly 7% compared to 2022 (2.66 xERA, 23.4% K-BB%, 109 Pitching+) and 14% from his career peak in 2019.Verlander’s strikeout rate (21%) is at its lowest point since 2015 when – similar to his 2023 campaign –  he suffered a lat strain that cost him the first two months of the season. Verlander’s walk rate is at its highest point since 2017, before his initial trade to Houston. Lastly, his xFIP or expected FIP (4.52) is at the highest level of his career, alongside that K-BB%, which is at its lowest point since 2008.Despite the downward trend in both his underlying indicators and pitch modeling metrics, Verlander remains an above-average starter who generates weak contact (.258 BABIP, .278 career, .296 MLB average), limits the long ball (0.86 HR/9, 0.91 career, 1.30 MLB average) and is as poised as anyone in big situations (75.7% strand rate, 75.4% career, 72% MLB average for starting pitchers).Nestor Cortes will return from the 60-day IL and a pair of rehab starts after poor results (5.15 ERA, 3.83 xERA) and a bout of shoulder inflammation. His own K-BB% had dipped by around five percent compared to the past two seasons, and his xERA – which stood at 3.30 in 2021 and 2.70 in 2022 has climbed to the high threes.Still, Cortes’ pitch modeling metrics (103 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 103 Pitching+) remain relatively stable compared to last season (106 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 104 Pitching+), and I suspect that he can pitch to his xERA –  and a sub-four ERA over the final two months of the season.I set New York as a slight favorite in this matchup; bet the Yankees’ moneyline at +102 or better. Additionally, I set the total at 7.85 runs bet Under 8.5 to -115.Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit TigersAaron Civale vs. Tarik SkubalFirst Pitch: 1:10 p.m. ETTarik Skubal – one of the model’s favorite pitchers last season – has potentially improved coming off of flexor tendon surgery. In five starts, Skubal has posted a 2.22 xERA, 28.6% K-BB%, and a 109 Pitching+ figure (97 Stuff+, 109 Location+); each representing a significant improvement over last season’s breakout performance (3.34 xERA, 17.8% K-BB%, 91 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+).Concerning the stuff increase, Skubal’s fastball velocity has increased from 94.4 mph to 95.9 mph, the third-hardest fastball amongst southpaw starters after Jesus Luzardo and Shane McClanahan.The Rays swapped high-end hitting prospect Kyle Manzardo to Cleveland for Aaron Civale (3.67 xERA, 11.8% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+), who draws a soft matchup against a Detroit offense that ranks 27th against right-handed pitching (83 wRC+), compared to 20th (94 wRC+) against lefties.However, the Rays have struggled for the past couple of months after a hot start to the season. Tampa Bay ranks 30th against lefties (76 wrC+) since June 1 compared to 12th (106 wRC+) against righties.Bet the Tigers at +122 or better than my projected line of +113.Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago CubsBryce Elder vs. Javier AssadFirst Pitch: 2:20 p.m. ETAfter calling for regression for nearly the entire season, things finally started to normalize for Bryce Elder (3.18 ERA, 4.02 xERA, 78.2% strand rate, .270 BABIP) in mid-July (permitted 14 runs in consecutive starts against the Rays and Diamondbacks). Pitching models aren’t exceptionally high on his arsenal (76 Stuff+, zero offerings above 86), and Elder has average command. Still, he generates a healthy number of groundballs (53.6%) and limits the longball (0.82 HR), making him a league-average starter despite a pedestrian strikeout rate.The Cubs will deploy Javier Assad (4.52 xERA) as an opener – for just the second time this season – at the head of a bullpen game on Saturday. Aside from Hayden Wesneski – who tossed three innings on Friday – I would expect all hands on deck from the bullpen, including a likely multi-inning stint from Michael Fulmer (4.22 xERA), who has recorded four outs or more in seven of 23 appearances since the start of June.Daniel Palencia (145 Stuff+) is the one arm to watch, with three plus offerings (146 Stuff+ on his fastball, 155 on his curveball, and 148 on his slider) but spotty command (98 Pitching+). Palencia (107 Pitching+) immediately rates with Julian Merryweather (108 Pitching+) and Adbert Alzolay (105 Pitching+) as the most talented arms in Chicago’s bullpen.Bet the Cubs to +117, compared to my projected line of +108. Additionally, bet the Under down to 10 (-112), compared to my projected total of 9.4.San Francisco Giants vs. Oakland AthleticsRoss Stripling vs. Paul BlackburnFirst Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ETI set Saturday’s total in Oakland at 8.53 runs; bet the Over to 8 (-110).Offensively, the Giants rate much better against righties (100 wRC+, 17th) than lefties (86 wRC+, 27th). While Paul Blackburn (4.05 xERA, 15.4% K-BB%) has seen his strikeout rate trend in a positive direction this season, both his expected ERA and pitch modeling metrics (87 Stuff+, 101 Location+) say that he is the same pitcher as last season (86 Stuff+, 102 Location+).Ross Stripling is the opposite case for the Giants, with a 5.17 xERA – significantly higher than last season’s 3.57 mark in Toronto. His Stuff+ has dropped by ten points – from 98 to 88 – but Stripling retains excellent command (4.2% walk rate, 5.6% career), with a 107 Locatio rating in both seasons.Still, Oakland has been the second-best “Over” team this season (57-46-7) because they give opposing teams extra outs and base advancements (-67 Defensive Runs Saved, 30th), and they have the worst bullpen in baseball (5.21 xFIP, 8.4% K-BB%).You can dabble with Oakland’s moneyline, to +137 in the first five innings (F5) and +142 for the full game.Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansMike Clevinger vs. Noah SyndergaardFirst Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ETMike Clevinger (4.68 xERA, 10.3% K-BB%, 98 Pitching+) and Noah Syndergaardard (6.08 xERA, 10.2% K-BB%, 99 Pitching+) are both well past their respective primes.Clevinger carried a 3.11 xERA and averaged 95.5 mph on his fastball in 2019. His fastball is only down 1.4 mph compared to that peak season; however, his K-BB% has dipped by more than 16%.Syndergaard pitched to a 2.78 xERA alongside a 98 mph fastball in 2016 before injuries started cropping up in 2017.  His fastball velocity is down nearly six mph from his career peak, and his K-BB% has declined by a similar amount as Clevinger.Both offenses are below-average against right-handed pitching (96 wRC+, 19th for Cleveland; 82 wrC+, 29th for Chicago).Still, with two starters I love to fade on the bump – and a Guardians offense (8th in steals, 12th in baserunning value) that can run wild on both Syndergaard and Chicago’s shoddy defense (-47 Defensive Runs Saved, 29th) involved, I like runs in this matchup.I projected the total at 9.4; bet Over 9 to -107.Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Minnesota TwinsRyne Nelson vs. Kenta MaedaFirst Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ETKenta Maeda (3.72 xERA, 22.1% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+) has split the difference between his impressive 2020 campaign (2.75 xERA, 28.2% K-BB%, 106 Pitching+) against a Central-Divison-only schedule, and his injury-riddled 2021 campaign (3.73 xERA, 17.9% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+) before Tommy John Surgery.Maeda’s fastball velocity (90.7 mph)…

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